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In the paper, the authors analyse the interaction between public debt and inflation including the mutual impulse response. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again a focus onto the consequences of government debt in combination with an expansionary monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to higher inflation rates if the money supply is expansionary...
The main purpose of this paper is to identify and characterise the factors of uncertainty in forecasting the (in)solvency of a pension system based on the non-financial defined contribution model (NDC) and to evaluate the forecasting function of automatic balance mechanisms (ABM). The study is theoretical and empirical. It dismisses the hypothesis of automatic balancing of the NDC model, which justifies...
One of the aspects of progressing globalisation processes is the change in the structure of labour market, especially in the employment and unemployment level. The scale of these changes is indirectly dependent on the potential of the labour resources in the local (national) labour markets. The main objective of the paper is to indicate the similarities and differences in changes in parameters that...
The purpose of this publication is to present the importance of financial investment using the example of the financial instrument of municipal bonds of the Municipality of Ostrów Wielkopolski. The budget support offered by the bond issue is not comparable with the possibilities of what can be achieved without issuing securities. After many years, bonds have become one of the main subjects in the...
In this paper were presented the results of the application of quasi-simulation methods to analysis the impact of the occurrence of systematic gaps on the accuracy of inter and extrapolative forecasts for time series with seasonal fluctuations. Forecasts were built on the basis of predictors based on descriptive models with seasonally changing parameters. Theoretical considerations will be illustrated...
This study is one of the first attempts to discover how long households in Poland remain in poverty (out of poverty) and whether the time spent in poverty (out of poverty) depends on the socio-economic group of household. The analysis is conducted using panel data collected in the project ”Social Diagnosis” in 2000-2013. We analyze the survivor functions of staying in poverty (out of poverty) using...
When dealing with real data situation we often have a binary (biomial, dichoto-mous) dependent variable. As the linear probability model is not such a good solution in such a situation there is a need to use nonlinear models. A quite good solution for such a sit-uation is the logistic regression model. The paper presents an adaptation of linear regression model when dealing with symbolic interval-valued...
Research problem analysed in the paper concentrates on the impact of the choice of scale on the the goodness of fit of the Structural Equation Model. For that purpose the primary research tool were built and used for conducting two rounds of research. In the first round two groups of respondents were given two different questionaries dealing with the same research problem (same set of research questions)...
Having given the data set with executed transactions and customer demographic features one can use marketing scoring to support sales campaign. The discrimination methods used in the scoring often face the problem of imbalance classes and irrelevant variables. In this paper, we analyze the insurance market, where the scoring is performed with a use of the weighted k nearest neighbors and multivariate...
This paper presents a proposal for process control applications based on econo-metric models. They are a tool which aim is to determine short-term forecasts, which are the basis to control the devices of production infrastructure. The article describes the application of the method of forecast errors corrective device in a real production process. Econometric models are presented: the exponential...
The main objective of this article is to present the patterns of Polish employers’ perception of competences of higher education graduates in the context of labor market needs. The analyzes are carried out on the basis of survey data collected and made available by the Flash Eurobarometer. Since the set of variables under consideration contains only non-metric data, some selected visualization techniques...
Numerous economic indicators are used for the purpose of research and international comparisons. Most important are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), national income, unemployment rate, inflation rate, foreign trade’s and investments’ share in GDP. Other measures, which are based on GDP, may be used for the economic growth assessment. These are for example economy internationalization, activity level,...
Measurement of consumer preferences is one of the most important elements of marketing research. In the measurement of consumers’ preferences Maximum Difference Scaling can be used. In this method, a fractional factorial design is used as the experiment, where a limited set of profiles (product or service) is taken into account. The resignation of full factorial design, in which the number of profiles...
In this paper there was conducted a statistical analysis of the impact of the distribution of unsystematic gaps on the accouracy of inter- and extrapolative forecasts in the seasonal time series. In the analysis, as variable, there was used the average period of stay of tourists in accommodation establishments in the West Pomeranian Voivodeship in the years 2008-2013. In calculations there were used...
11 maja odbyły się XIX Warsztaty Metodologiczne im. Profesora Stefana Mynarskiego pt. „Wielowymiarowość i złożoność danych marketingowych. Wyzwania analityczne”. Organizatorem konferencji były Katedra Ekonometrii oraz Katedra Badań Marketingowych Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu. Patronat nad tegoroczną edycją Warsztatów Metodologicznych objął TAURON Dystrybucja Spółka Akcyjna.
The aim of this article was the search of the dynamic of dependencies between WSE and other countries coming from Europe, America and Asia. The two-dimensional time series has been modeled by multidimensional GARCH process with dynamic condi-tional correlation or by Markov-switching Copula-GARCH model. The analysis confirms the claim that dependences between financial markets are higher in a period...
The main purpose of the article is to describe the state of the art in using big data in official statistics. The article presents selected examples of how data from mobile operators, sensors, social media or scanners are used by national statistical offices. The authors also identify chances, challenges and risks related to the use of big data in the field of official statistics.
The risk of consumer behaviour, as a part of the widely understood studies on risk, is still an uncharted and undiscovered area of human activity. The main goal of this paper is to draw attention to the issue of the measurement of risk perceived by the consumers` unsuccessful purchase, as well as presenting a multidimensional analysis of data on risk research perceived by consumers in the decision...
The paper summarizes empirical research finalizing the first stage of the scientific project aimed at hedonic methods application in adjusting price indices in cases when variability in quality of goods is observed. A hedonic model describes the price of the heterogeneous good by a set of its relevant attributes, and thus it can be helpful in distinguishing the price change level resulting from quality-related...
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